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Barack Obama Cannot Run For President!

January 16, 2007 3:28 PM

really think that Mr. Obama should not run for president in 2008. That's not to say that I don't think he should run eventually, or that I don't think he'd make a good president. And it has nothing to do with the fact that he's black. Ok, it has something to do with the fact that he's black. But let me explain.

In general, I see two problems with Mr. Obama running in 2008. The first is that he's unlikely to win the nomination. The second is that, win or lose the nomination, he's in great danger of losing his presidential candidate credibility.

Mr. Obama cannot win the Democratic nomination
Hillary Clinton is going to win, assuming that she runs. The last time I saw some pollng numbers, Ms. Clinton was well ahead. As in, by an order of magnitude, even as compared against Mr. Obama. Even though Mr. Obama is a hero (and rightly so) to some, he doesn't have the name recognition of Ms. Clinton. And, of course, his last name isn't Clinton.

While it's true that Ms. Clinton's winning the nomination depends on her seeking the nomination, I don't think it's very likely that she won't run. I just don't see her giving up that opportunity. However, if Ms. Clinton chooses not to run, then I think that Mr. Obama would have a very good chance of getting the nomination. But, then, that leads into the second problem.

Mr. Obama must keep his eyes on the importance of credibility for future races

Mr. Obama is the freshman senator from Illinois, with heavy emphasis on "freshman." Although he's got extremely good academic credentials (he was the first black president of the Harvard Law Review, for example) he is extremely inexperienced in national and international politics. The fact that he hasn't been a governor also counts against him--he doesn't have any top-level executive experience in any government unit. The last president that went from being senator to being president was John F. Kennedy, and while I recognize that Mr. Obama and Mr. Kennedy are analagous in some ways, Mr. Kennedy won by a very thin margin.

On top of all of that is the fact that Mr. Obama is black. Now, I want to be very clear about this: I do not consider a candidate's race in any way to whether or not they should be president. The reality in early-twenty-first century America, however, is that not everyone is like me in that regard. In all honesty, I don't know how many people would let Mr. Obama's skin color affect their decision. I've seen numbers that are very encouraging as well as numbers that are very discouraging. It's discouraging that this is even something that would be an issue in this day and age. But it would be an issue. Perhaps not an overt issue brought up by opposing candidates, but I think that there would definitely be an undercurrent of racial grumblings.

In short, I do not think that, even if he were to secure the Democratic Party's nomination, Mr. Obama could win the general election in 2008. 2012 and 2016 are entirely different, however. I think that, with more experience, more exposure, more name-recognition, and more support, Mr. Obama could be a force to be reckoned with. But I also think that all of that would be foreclosed if Mr. Obama ran now. Numerous examples demonstrate that you get one legitimate shot at being elected president. After that, you're an alsoran at best. Just think about Al Gore, John Kerry, Howard Dean, and Wesley Clark, for example. Mr. Gore and Mr. Kerry both ran, both won the nomination, and both lost. And now, neither one of them can even hope to make a legitimate run at the Oval Office. I see no reason to believe that Mr. Obama would avoid that fate.

Kristin brings up a good point: a Clinton/Obama ticket would be very strong. And it would set up Mr. Obama for a future bid. Honestly, for the Democrats, that makes a lot of sense. Mr. Obama might make Ms. Clinton more pallatable to those, like me, who would otherwise strongly consider voting non-Democrat.

So, 2008 is not Mr. Obama's year, although I'd vote for him. But you can bet I'll be wearing my "Obama '12" pin.



10 Comments


Utah said:

2012 and 2016 may be too late for Obama, since I fully expect America to pass a constitutional amendment to allow Arnold Schwarzenegger to take the Presidency.

January 16, 2007 5:12 PM



morenonesense said:

Not for nothing, although I found your piece very interesting and with some strong points, you neglected to define any platform that Obama may run on. Can you identify any of his policies other than he's charismatic, media savvy, and obviously intelligent? It doesn't seem like anybody can; people who are left leaning seem to just like the fact that he's an outsider, he's a minority, and apparently, he's sexy.

January 16, 2007 5:23 PM



TheExpat said:

Utah,
They can pass all the amendments they want, it doesn't mean Chuck Norris is going to allow it.

January 16, 2007 8:50 PM



Dee said:

oyo. how can you not address the fact that people would come out of the woodwork to vote for a Matt Foley/Hamburglar ticket if Hillary ran. She doesn't even have to make campaign promises or establish a campaign platform; people will vote for or against her based on the impression they had of her in 1999. it doesn't matter who she runs with--i predict that if hillary runs and wins the democratic nomination, the republican opponent will win--and probably by a larger margin than we've seen in a few elections.


and morenonsense, how can you discount the political sway of a sexy man? what are they teaching you in albany?

January 16, 2007 10:05 PM



Ismael Tapia II said:

Dee,
Holy shit! I have to say, your comment about the Matt Foley/Hamburglar ticket was the funniest thing I've read in a long, long time. That was genius. But it also makes a good point--regardless of who Ms. Clinton runs with, there will be many, many people who, justifiably or not, will vote against her just because it's her. She has to know that, and she has to consider that when she thinks about whether or not to run.

Mr. nononsense,
No, honestly, I can't identify many of his policies. But, then, none of the major candidates or possible candidates have had the chance to talk about their platforms very much.

Mr. Utah,
The Schwarzenegger Amendment, though, as you pointed out tonight, prophesized by Demolition Man, seems unlikely in the current political climate. Although I whole-heartedly support such an amendment, I don't think the Terminator's going to have much of a chance of getting elected president very soon.

January 17, 2007 3:00 AM



Elise said:

Three things:

1. I used to be on the Clinton/Obama bandwagon, thinking that would be an unstoppable team. However, a wise friend recently pointed out to me that to some voters, that would be two strikes against the dems. Americans might be ok voting for a woman OR a black man, but not both on the same ticket. Also, Hilary tends to polorize people, and there are many that think adding Obama to the ticket would just make that worse, because he is so inexperienced (i.e. if you hate Hilary but would vote for her with someone else you liked and thought was qualified, Obama is less likely than many others (Edwards) to fill that role).

2. I think this country will have a black president before it will have a woman president. (I also think we will have a black president before a jewish president).

3. This blog entry is written like a legal brief - nice strong headings (*ahem* law nerd *ahem*)

January 18, 2007 3:19 PM



Vice said:

Hold on, do you guys really think Matt Foley would choose the Hamburglar for his running mate, while passing up Burgie's more politically-savvy and experienced compatriot, Mayor McCheese?

January 18, 2007 3:22 PM



History said:

I disagree with the "you only get one legitimate shot" at the Presidency theory for the following reasons:

1) Gore made a pretty serious run at the '88 Democratic nomination, winning several primaries. This led to increased name-recognition, which in turn contributed to Clinton naming Gore as his '92 running mate. Gore then had another chance in 2000.

2) George H.W. Bush ran unsuccessfully for the '80 Repub. nomination.

3) Reagan ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination in '68 and '76 before winning in '80.

4)Nixon lost in '60 before winning in '68.

5) the list goes on...

January 19, 2007 8:25 PM



r chisolm said:

Of course he cannot win, the new hostility with hillery is the ruse to remove him as a vp which would sink her,perhaps in 75 years a new obama,,for now most blacks do not even support him.

November 18, 2007 12:23 PM



Sagar said:

I had no idea how to approach this before—now I’m lckeod and loaded.

July 9, 2011 10:42 PM



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